California's
tax-hike advocates may setting up circular firing squad
By
Dan Walters
Published:
Friday, Dec. 2, 2011
Those
who believe that California should raise taxes – including Gov. Jerry Brown –
to close its budget deficit or increase spending may be forming a circular firing squad.
Four
major tax measures, all with well-heeled support and opposition, appear to be
headed for the November 2012 ballot, plus a few lesser tax proposals. Voters
could be subjected to weeks of confusing propaganda, and their response could
be to reject everything.
The
Think Long Committee for California – a group of political and civic figures
and financed by billionaire Nicolas Berggruen – wants Californians to approve a
sweeping tax overhaul that would extend sales taxes to services, simplify the income tax
and generate about $10 billion more year.
Molly
Munger – the daughter of Charles Munger, Warren Buffet's chief business partner
– wants a sliding scale increase in income taxes to raise $10 billion a year for K-12 and preschool education.
Hedge
fund manager Tom Steyer would indirectly boost taxes on out-of-state
corporations doing business in California, by changing the way their taxable
incomes are calculated, to boost spending on green energy by $1.1 billion a
year.
Finally,
Brown and his union allies will soon unveil a temporary sales tax hike and
income tax surcharge on the affluent to raise about $7 billion a year to close
the state's chronic budget deficit.
If
they all make the ballot, not only will voters be bombarded by their advocates
and opponents, but they create intramural rivalries.
Brown's
allies in the public employee unions, especially the powerful California Teachers Association dislike the
Think Long proposal because it would shift the tax burden
from higher-income taxpayers to those in the middle-income brackets – and
because Think Long wants the schools to give up billions of dollars owed by the
state. The Brown and Munger plans would be direct competitors.
It
sets up a situation not unlike what happened in 2009, when then-Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger and the Legislature placed a package of several budget and tax
measures on a special election ballot. Voters reacted angrily at its complexity
and rejected everything.
The
2009 package violated an unwritten rule of ballot measures, that they should be
as simple – perhaps as simplistic – as possible because when voters are
confused and uncertain about something, they're more likely to reject it.
The
2012 measures could create the same kind of confusion and play into the hands
of anti-tax groups that would like to see everything die.
Obviously,
the way to avoid that situation would be for Brown and others who want to raise
taxes to make some sort of deal to present one relatively straightforward,
poll-tested tax measure.
However,
given the big egos involved, it's doubtful anyone has the stature to make that
happen.
Call
The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195.
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